They say a week is a long time in politics. Well, ain’t that the truth? Particularly this week. Particularly now.
While most of us were wrapping presents on Christmas Eve, the Prime Minister was concluding the biggest and most complicated trade deal that any one of us has ever witnessed.
Boris Johnson has done what he promised. He has Got Brexit Done. And he has done this in the face of a trenchantly ‘remain’ Parliament. That was quite a coup, not least because the nation’s continuing inability to answer the European Question has seen off the last four Conservative Prime Ministers.
Because the deal is largely now ‘done’ and there’s no longer a leave or remain argument really to be had, it’s worth reflecting on how it all happened, and what we might learn from it...
After winning the Tory leadership in July 2019, BJ persuaded a hung Parliament to hold a general election. Because he understood the meaning of Euroscepticism and the fact that Brexit wasn’t solely about economic growth, he struck a chord with the electorate. It consequently wasn’t surprising that in December 2019, he won the biggest majority since Margaret Thatcher’s victory in 1987. His victory demonstrated just how strongly the electorate felt about Parliament not honouring the referendum result, and many Remainer MP’s paid heavily for it, by losing their seats.
To Boris, Taking Back Control was not about the UK retreating into a dark corner, wanting to cut off relations with Europe. It was about regaining sovereignty, being an independent friend with Europe, but also free to make our own relationships around the world. Indeed, Germany’s business daily, Handelsblatt suggested on Boxing Day that in the future, relations between the UK and the EU will probably become even closer.
The PM recognised what many of us already knew: that the EU was always a Franco-German project built on the twin axis of German manufacturing and French agriculture. He also knew that everyone who joined afterwards (the UK included) has suffered from this. (Just look at the high levels of unemployment in southern Europe, where German manufacturing efficiency has put so many Mediterranean companies out of business, and the continuing relative poverty of southern European farmers, who look enviously at their French counterparts, who still receive the lion’s share of the EU’s enormous agricultural budget).
Because the UK contributed so much financially to EU coffers, it’s understandable that Brussels wanted to make it virtually impossible for us to leave. But negotiation is an art. You must always leave something on the table for the next man (or woman). Looking back, by being greedy, and humiliating Teresa May, the EU helped gift the 2019 general election to BJ, and in so doing, they gave him the opportunity to negotiate afresh, which he took with both hands.
Boris Johnson is a lucky politician. During the 2019 general election he was not only able to play the ‘I will deliver Brexit’ card, but he also faced, in Jeremy Corbyn, a man so unfit for high office that every single Labour leader since he entered Parliament in June 1983 never gave him so much as a whelk stall to manage. And BJ’s luck was repeated earlier this month, with numerous announcements that effective vaccines for Covid have been found.
But luck only gets you so far. By sticking to his guns and making it clear that No Deal remained on the table, the PM secured much greater concessions than Theresa May ever could. BJ always looked chaotic - it seemed as though he had slept in a hedge the previous night and lost his comb. But, behind his apparent buffoonery, he has an astute political brain. Indeed, the French Daily, Le Monde, described Boris on Boxing Day as ‘an unsinkable political machine,’ commenting that: ‘the British Prime Minister has once again shown the usefulness of pretending to be a madman.’
Our PM divides opinion. Maddeningly for the left, he is also one of those unusual toffs who is identified by many working-class voters as a man of the people.’ How else could he have demolished so much of the red wall? He is also portrayed by some of his critics as being ‘right-wing,’ but that is to misread him. In many ways, he is further to the left that any Conservative prime minister I can ever remember.
But will all his efforts bear fruit, and will Brexit be a success?
Well, that depends on how you measure it. But I, for one, can imagine the headlines in a few months’ time with Brexit behind us: the vaccine having been rolled out; offices, shops and factories re-opened; sporting venues full; and the economy starting to rebound after the ravages of coronavirus. Even this weekend, it was reported that in 2021 the UK would regain its position as the world’s 5th largest economy, growing at such a rate, that by 2035, we will be nearly 25 percent larger than France.
It won’t all be plain sailing. And there will inevitably be some further mutterings from Brussels. But we shouldn’t forget the UK is the EU’s largest trading partner in Europe – and a very profitable one at that. In fact, German manufacturers call the UK ‘Treasure Island,’ such are the prices they can command for their exported goods to our shores. Now both sides have a wide-ranging, tariff-free and quota-free deal, it’s difficult to imagine that either party would want to unpick it.
I’m sure we’ve all had more than enough of Brexit and Covid in 2020. So, I’m looking forward to seeing a return to domestic policies, such as real evidence of a Levelling Up in the North; the establishment of Freeports in places like Teesside and the Humber; further investment in renewable fuel sources; better animal welfare regulations; cleaner air in our towns and cities; the return of more manufacturing from China to create shorter and more secure supply chains; and finding solutions to the dual impact of coronavirus on our jobs market and the internet on our high street retailers. And of course, addressing the economic and social hardships which have blighted so many families over the recent past.
Yes, a week is a long time in politics. But for this lucky politician, he also has four years to deliver results. That’s a lifetime.